Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has stated that net migration in the UK “needs to fall further”, despite government figures revealing the figure has roughly decreased by half since 2024. The Manchester mayor and Labour’s candidate in the by-election in Makerfield provided these observations after the Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that migration brought 171,000 people to the UK’s population over the previous year — the minimum number since 2012, apart from the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “voiced worries about immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he supports the “broad thrust” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s suggested reforms to increase the difficulty for migrants to remain on a long-term basis, he stressed the government must “get the balance right” on the controversial measure.

Net migration hits lowest point in over ten years

The most recent ONS figures marks a substantial shift in the UK’s migration trajectory. The number of 171,000 represents the lowest annual net migration since 2012, a dramatic reversal from the record highs seen in the past few years. This significant drop demonstrates the government’s concerted efforts to strengthen immigration policy and lower total migration numbers through stricter visa requirements and enforcement measures.

The progress has been noted by senior Labour figures, who regard the data as proof that their immigration strategy is producing concrete results. However, ministers have cautioned that additional cuts are necessary to meet their long-range objectives. The Interior Ministry has cautioned that without further policy measures, roughly 1.6 million people could secure permanent settlement between 2026 and 2030, prompting the government’s push for stricter residency requirements.

• Net migration fell from record highs to lowest point since 2012
• 171,000 people added to UK population through net migration in the past year
• Government intends to make permanent settlement considerably more difficult for migrants
• Home Office forecasts 1.6m prospective migrants without policy changes

Settlement regulations face a major overhaul amid ongoing political discussion

The government’s proposals to make stricter settlement rules have triggered considerable controversy within Labour’s internal ranks, with a number of high-ranking officials publicly questioning the retrospective nature of the planned amendments. Ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been particularly vocal in her opposition, calling the policy “un-British” and criticised the government of “moving the goalposts” on people moving to the UK who have already begun establishing themselves in the UK. These objections reveal fundamental disagreements within the party over how to reconcile controlling immigration with humanitarian values and equity.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has supported the proposals as necessary and fair, contending they are essential to prevent what she characterises as a “drain on our public finances”. She has highlighted that the measures are appropriate reactions to anticipated intake levels that could attain 1.6 million people between 2026 and 2030 without intervention. The consultation process on these controversial measures will be essential in establishing whether the authorities can strike a balance that meets the needs of both strict enforcers and those concerned about the personal consequences of more stringent controls.

What these changes will mean

Indefinite leave to remain, officially termed indefinite leave to remain, provides individuals the right to live, work and study in the UK permanently, whilst also allowing them to access specific welfare support if eligible. The government’s proposed changes would significantly increase the difficulty for migrants to achieve this position, effectively restricting long-term residency opportunities. This represents a significant policy shift designed to manage demographic expansion and reduce projected settlement numbers considerably over the following years.

• Settlement provides lasting entitlement to work and reside in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residence considerably more difficult to obtain
• Policy aims to limit approximately 1.6 million anticipated settlements from 2026 to 2030

Burnham recalibrates approach on contentious social issues

Andy Burnham has indicated a notable change in his position on single-sex spaces, acknowledging that his views have evolved following the Equalities and Human Rights Commission’s updated guidance on the matter. The Mayor of Greater Manchester said to the BBC on Friday that he now accepts the Supreme Court ruling defining a woman under the Equality Act as determined by biological sex, stating it “has to be implemented”. This constitutes a significant shift from his previous stance, when he suggested that worries regarding trans women in women’s toilets were shared by only a “small minority”.

Burnham highlighted, however, that whilst accepting the regulatory structure, the execution must be managed with sensitivity and compassion. He stressed that the ruling should not turn into “a kind of triumph against other people in society” and warned against continuing to marginalise already at-risk communities. His finely balanced position seeks to balance regulatory requirements with social responsibility, reflecting broader Labour tensions over how to manage increasingly polarised debates around questions of gender and equality.

The development of his viewpoint

When pressed on whether his position had changed, Burnham was forthright, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve followed the debate as it’s progressed over the years.” His admission demonstrates a willingness to reassess long-held views in light of legal developments and community engagement, demonstrating the fluidity of political positioning on divisive social issues within the party.

Electoral contest heats up in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s observations on immigration and social policy arrive as Labour prepares for a critical by-election battle in Makerfield, a long-standing safe Labour seat in Greater Manchester. The by-election, sparked by the departure of incumbent MP Mike Jevons, constitutes a major test of the party’s electoral standing in a heartland constituency where concerns among working-class voters about immigration and public services have long dominated political discussion at local level. Burnham’s preparedness to recognise public concerns about immigration whilst supporting the government’s wider strategy suggests Labour is acutely aware of the political sensitivities connected to these questions in once-industrial areas.

The Makerfield contest holds significant symbolic importance, as the constituency has been represented by Labour since 1997 and any significant swing away from the party would reverberate across Westminster. Burnham’s high-profile campaigning in the seat emphasises Labour’s resolve to maintain their position, whilst his repositioning on major policy matters signals an attempt to address public concerns directly rather than overlook them. The by-election outcome will provide an early indicator of whether the government’s strategy of acknowledging public feeling whilst upholding progressive policies can effectively manage the political minefield of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield held by Labour from 1997 with minimal opposition
• By-election triggered by incumbent Member of Parliament Mike Jevons’ resignation
• Result will reveal the government’s polling performance in heartland constituencies